President Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by only 44,292 votes (.73 percentage points) in 2016.
If he wins the state again Nov. 3, he will probably beat Joe Biden only narrowly.
Actually, the same goes for Biden.
It sure looks like the race will wind up tight, based on current polling, according to a summary of polling on RealClearPolitics.com.
As late as mid July, Biden led by 11 points (50%-39%) in a FOX News poll.
He hasn’t had a double-digit lead since.
In nine polls since, three had Biden up 9 points, including one last month by Franklin & Marshall College, set to release a new poll tomorrow.
Two each had him up 3 and 4 points and one each had him up 1 and 6 points.
The most recent, by CNBC/Change Research, had Biden up 3 points. That one surveyed 984 likely state voters between Aug. 21 and 23, the three days after the Democratic National Convention.
If Trump gets a post-convention bump, the race for Pennsylvania will really tighten up.
It’s shaping up as a classic turnout election. Whoever is better at getting their voters to the polls will win the state.