OK, so maybe today will mark the start of a long streak of daily blogging for me the way I used to do it.
I want to start the streak by touching on polling numbers, one of my favorite things.
President Donald Trump’s are bad.
The worst he’s seen in a while, which probably explains why he wants to shake up his campaign staff.
The landslide 2020 victory that his campaign manager Brad Parscale predicted last year looks less and less likely.
For one thing, Sleepy Joe woke up.
Since former Vice President Joe Biden gave a stirring speech June 2 at the National Constitution Center in Philly, Trump’s job approval numbers have really slipped. They started slipping before that, but Biden’s speech didn’t help the president.
Think back to early and mid May when a couple of polls actually had Trump’s approval rating outpacing his disapproval percentage. Not by much, 1 or 2 percentage points, but quite different from months of polling before that.
Since then, Trump has dropped to double-digit disapproval pretty much all the time, according to a compilation of polling on RealClearPolitics.
In the last 29 polls that asked voters about Trump’s job performance, 21 had disapproval at least 10 points higher than approval. Only one poll with disapproval lower than 10 points higher has come out since Biden’s speech. It’s mostly minus 13, minus 17, minus 19, minus 15, etc.
I always use Rasmussen Reports as a guide for how Trump is really doing because it’s a Republican-leaning pollster and they track the number daily. As of today, Rasmussen had Trump at 43% approval, 56% disapproval.
Now, on the same June day before his second election, Rasmussen had President Barack Obama at 47% approval/52% disapproval, but most polling had Obama with higher approval than disapproval before and after that.
Obama won, but he beat Mitt Romney, a rich guy in tough times.
Trump, a rich guy governing in tough times and beloved by many working-class Democrats in 2016, faces another rich guy in Biden, beloved by many of the same Democrats. Of course, Biden spent most of his life not rich and certainly nowhere near as unlikable as Romney.
Maybe that’s the president’s real problem.
People actually like his opponent.